Proportion of top grades falls to pre-pandemic levels, but nearly half are still unexplained

Today, analysis published by the OfS shows that the number of graduates that attained first class degrees in 2022-23 fell to 29.6 per cent – a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous year.

Confirming 2022-23 as the second successive year that rates of first class degrees have fallen, the report also shows that students who started degrees with the very highest A-level results remain the most likely to be awarded top grades at university. Nearly half (47.9 per cent) of students who entered higher education with grades of AAA and above received first class degrees in 2022-23. The biggest increase in first class degree attainment between 2010-11 and 2022-23 was for students with A-level grades DDD, rising from 6.7 per cent to 24.4 per cent.

The proportion of top grades awarded to students has risen significantly since 2010-11. In 2010-11, 15.8 per cent of students achieved first class degrees; in 2022-23, that figure is almost double (29.6 per cent).

Of the 29.6 per cent of students awarded first class degrees in 2022-23, nearly half (13.4 per cent) cannot be explained by the OfS’s statistical modelling, which considers factors such as subject of study and students’ entry qualifications.

The proportion of students awarded first and upper second class degrees combined has also fallen for two successive years. It fell to 77.6 per cent in 2022-23, compared to 80.7 per cent in the previous year.

For students with A-levels, the decreases in first and upper second class degrees awarded between 2021-22 and 2022-23 ranged from a fall of 2.1 percentage points for students with grades of AAA and above, through to a sizable 6.3 percentage point reduction for students entering with grades of CCD.

Susan Lapworth, chief executive of the OfS, said:

‘This report shows that the decade-long increases we’ve seen in the award of top degrees is slowing, thanks to the steps universities have taken to curb grade inflation and to begin to restore confidence in the qualifications students are awarded.

‘It’s encouraging to see rates decrease for the second year running and return to pre-pandemic levels.

‘But we are still seeing nearly double the proportion of graduates awarded first class degrees as we did in 2010-11, nearly half of which is unexplained. Our report is clear that while some of this observed increase could be attributed to factors like improved teaching and learning, we need to guard against unexplained increases in classifications becoming embedded because this risks public confidence in higher education.

‘We support the important actions universities continue to take to ensure students’ hard work is being valued consistently over time. A first class degree in 2024 should carry the same weight as one awarded in the past and into the future.’

Notes

1. The Office for Students is the independent regulator for higher education in England. Our aim is to ensure that every student, whatever their background, has a fulfilling experience of higher education that enriches their lives and careers.
2. The term ‘unexplained’ in the analysis means that changes in attainment since 2010-11 cannot be statistically accounted for by changes in the characteristics of the graduating cohort in terms of the explanatory variables included in the statistical modelling including:
• provider at which the graduate was registered
• year of graduation
• subject of study
• qualifications on entry into higher education
• age on entry to higher education.
3. The analysis includes data from 143 providers that awarded 256,100 graduates a classified degree in 2022-23 (first degree and degrees including a postgraduate component). The graduates were UK-domiciled and studying full time when they started their course.